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Brief Date: Monday, 7 September 2026Data as of: Friday, 4 September 2026

EU demand slips while Indian stainless holds firm

Market Thesis

European stainless demand indicators weakened while BigMint's public India signals stayed firm. Global nickel-chain relief therefore points to gradual 304 cost easing, but domestic pass-through may remain uneven.

Trade Intelligence Notice: Indicative trade intelligence for industrial planning. Every figure carries its actual verified source and date. For firm contract pricing on specific coils, circles, or sheets, contact our desk.

China & Global Inputs

EU stainless imports - H1 2026EU-SS-IMP
645,500 tonnes

SMM's 7 September flash cites Eurostat and shows broad import contraction.

Down 21% year-on-year; flat products down 35%Source: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104099461-smm-stainless-steel-flash-eu-stainless-steel-imports-fall-21-yoy-in-h1-2026-outokumpu-warns-of-q3-volume-decline
Outokumpu Q3 stainless delivery guidanceOUT1V-DEL
0-10% lower

SMM's 7 Sep flash reports Outokumpu guidance; European seasonality is the stated driver.

Expected decrease versus Q2 2026Source: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104099461-smm-stainless-steel-flash-eu-stainless-steel-imports-fall-21-yoy-in-h1-2026-outokumpu-warns-of-q3-volume-decline
SHFE stainless SS2610 - 10:15 referenceSS2610
RMB 13,870/mt

Friday 10:15 reference. The session later closed at RMB 13,855/mt; the close is used on the slide.

+RMB 40 day-on-day; -RMB 115 week-on-weekSource: SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104098710-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-ss-futures-rebound-limited-stainless-steel-spot-decline-eases-but-transactions-remain-mediocre ; SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/id/newscontent/104099036-smm-analysis-chinas-stainless-futures-break-lower-again-as-the-golden-september-restocking-simply-never-arrives
China 300-series social inventorySS-300-INV
582,000 mt
Key Inventory SignalObserved 3 September; SMM says warrant outflow, not end-user consumption, drove the drawdown.
Down 6,000 mt week-on-weekSource: SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/id/newscontent/104099036-smm-analysis-chinas-stainless-futures-break-lower-again-as-the-golden-september-restocking-simply-never-arrives
LME three-month nickelNI-3M
USD 16,835/mt

Pinned to the completed 4 September LME session on SMM's LME page.

Down USD 70 day-on-daySource: SMM, 5 Sep 2026 - https://www-old.metal.com/nickel/LME_NI_3M
LME nickel inventoryNI-INV
270,768 t
Key Inventory SignalObserved 4 September; rising exchange stocks temper immediate scarcity.
Up 2,406 t week-on-weekSource: BigMint, 5 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/lme-nickel-prices-inch-down-w-o-w-amid-elevated-inventories-786769
Indonesia NPI FOB - weekly averageNPI-FOB
USD 144.07/nickel unit

Weekly average points to softer nickel feedstock cost pressure.

Down USD 1.44 week-on-weekSource: SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/es/newscontent/104099081-smm-analysisnpi-prices-drop-amid-sluggish-market-and-high-costs-smelting-margins-squeezed
China high-grade NPI - weekly averageNPI-CN
RMB 1,113.2/nickel unit

SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI, ex-factory and tax-inclusive.

Down RMB 9.3 week-on-weekSource: SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/es/newscontent/104099081-smm-analysisnpi-prices-drop-amid-sluggish-market-and-high-costs-smelting-margins-squeezed
Indonesia nickel HMA - first half Sep 2026ID-HMA-NI
USD 16,733.33/tonne

Ore-pricing reference input, not a delivered ore quote or an Indian duty change.

Down USD 226.67 from second half AugustSource: SMM, 2 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104092813-indonesia-domestic-nickel-ore-benchmark-price-indonesias-nickel-hma-fell-again-in-the-first-half-of-september

India Domestic

India stainless scrap directionIN-SS-SCRAP
Up week-on-week
Key Inventory SignalBigMint publishes the direction publicly; numeric values are subscriber-gated.
Source: BigMint, 4 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel
India finished stainless directionIN-SS-FIN
Prices rose

BigMint publishes the direction publicly; numeric values are subscriber-gated.

Source: BigMint, 2 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel
India September stainless coil directionIN-SS-COIL
Prices raised

BigMint publishes the direction publicly; numeric values are subscriber-gated.

Source: BigMint, 1 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel
Desk Outlook

Market Read: Outlook & Risk Balance

Market BiasGradually lower 304 landed-cost pressure, with uneven India pass-through.
Horizon2-4 weeks
PaceSlow and measured, not a reset.
Analytical Reasoning

European demand indicators, softer NPI, lower Indonesian HMA and higher LME stocks pull global inputs lower, while BigMint's Indian scrap and finished-product direction is firmer. Tight molybdenum can limit 316 relief.

Key Factors to Watch
  • Indian stainless scrap availability
  • Chinese end-user restocking
  • Indonesian smelter output
Step-Change Risk

The 11 September DGTR oral hearing is a policy event, not a duty change. A new applicable duty or a wider Indonesian supply interruption could lift landed costs abruptly.

Statutory & Trade Defense

Policy Watch

DGTR oral hearing for cold-rolled stainless case

Scheduled for Friday, 11 September 2026 at 3:30 PM IST

The individual case page lists Oral Hearing as the latest timeline item and no preliminary or final determination. Notice published 31 July 2026; case page updated 7 August 2026.

Source: DGTR, notice 31 Jul 2026 and case page updated 7 Aug 2026 - https://www.dgtr.gov.in/en/anti-dumping-cases/anti-dumping-investigation-concerning-imports-cold-rolled-flat-products

Source Attribution: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104099461-smm-stainless-steel-flash-eu-stainless-steel-imports-fall-21-yoy-in-h1-2026-outokumpu-warns-of-q3-volume-decline | SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104098710-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-ss-futures-rebound-limited-stainless-steel-spot-decline-eases-but-transactions-remain-mediocre | SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/id/newscontent/104099036-smm-analysis-chinas-stainless-futures-break-lower-again-as-the-golden-september-restocking-simply-never-arrives | SMM, 5 Sep 2026 - https://www-old.metal.com/nickel/LME_NI_3M | BigMint, 5 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/detail/lme-nickel-prices-inch-down-w-o-w-amid-elevated-inventories-786769 | SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/es/newscontent/104099081-smm-analysisnpi-prices-drop-amid-sluggish-market-and-high-costs-smelting-margins-squeezed | SMM, 2 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104092813-indonesia-domestic-nickel-ore-benchmark-price-indonesias-nickel-hma-fell-again-in-the-first-half-of-september | BigMint, 4/2/1 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel | SMM, 3 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104096483-rigid-supply-constraints-intensify-molybdenum-market-tug-of-war-in-early-september-smm-analysis | DGTR, notice 31 Jul 2026 / case page updated 7 Aug 2026 - https://www.dgtr.gov.in/en/anti-dumping-cases/anti-dumping-investigation-concerning-imports-cold-rolled-flat-products

Published by Metal Dock B2B Trade Intelligence Desk  ·  Wazirpur Industrial Area, Delhi

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