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Brief Date: Tuesday, 8 September 2026Data as of: Monday, 7 September 2026

Futures rebound, but stainless restocking stays weak

Market Thesis

Monday stainless futures recovered, but Chinese mill restocking remained cautious while NPI and LME nickel softened. India stayed firmer, and the DGTR oral hearing on 11 September is the immediate policy event.

Trade Intelligence Notice: Indicative trade intelligence for industrial planning. Every figure carries its actual verified source and date. For firm contract pricing on specific coils, circles, or sheets, contact our desk.

China & Global Inputs

SHFE stainless most-traded contract closeSS-MOST
RMB 13,885/mt

7 September session close. SMM also described peak-season buying as need-based and the demand recovery as weaker than expected.

+RMB 30 vs 4 Sep; -RMB 5 vs 31 AugSource: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/es/newscontent/104101310-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-stainless-steel-futures-drive-spot-price-recovery-september-peak-season-demand-weak-insufficient-upward-momentum ; SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104098710-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-ss-futures-rebound-limited-stainless-steel-spot-decline-eases-but-transactions-remain-mediocre ; SMM, 31 Aug 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104088818-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-futures-extended-the-weak-trend-and-broke-below-support-spot-stainless-steel-prices-held-steady-with-sluggish-trading
LMEselect nickel 3-monthNI-3M
USD 16,690/mt

SMM page timestamp is 8 Sep 2026 02:00 CST and labels the quote as the 7 September LME session.

Down USD 145 from previous closeSource: SMM, 7 Sep session - https://www-old.metal.com/Nickel/LME_NI_3M
China high-grade NPINPI-CN
CNY 1,100.5/mtu

SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI ex-works assessment on 7 September.

Down CNY 4 from previous FridaySource: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104101557-smm-analysis-golden-september-nickel-pig-iron-prices-slide-as-chinas-mills-delay-restocking
Indonesia NPI FOB indexNPI-FOB
USD 142.7/mtu

SMM Indonesia NPI FOB index on 7 September.

Down USD 0.7 from previous FridaySource: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104101557-smm-analysis-golden-september-nickel-pig-iron-prices-slide-as-chinas-mills-delay-restocking

India Domestic

India stainless scrap directionIN-SS-SCRAP
Up week-on-week
Key Inventory SignalBigMint publishes the direction publicly; numeric stainless scrap benchmark values are subscriber-gated.
Source: BigMint, 4 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel
India finished stainless directionIN-SS-FIN
Prices rose

BigMint publishes the direction publicly; detailed numeric values are subscriber-gated.

Source: BigMint, 2 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel
Desk Outlook

Market Read: Outlook & Risk Balance

Market BiasGradually lower 304 landed-cost pressure, with delayed Indian pass-through.
Horizon2-4 weeks
PaceGradual, not a reset.
Analytical Reasoning

LME nickel and NPI moved lower while Chinese mills remained cautious on restocking. BigMint's public India signals stayed firmer, so local stainless pricing may not follow global input relief immediately. Caserones weather disruption also keeps molybdenum supply risk relevant for 316.

Key Factors to Watch
  • Chinese stainless restocking
  • Indian stainless scrap availability
  • Indonesian NPI supply response
Step-Change Risk

A new applicable duty following the DGTR process or a material Indonesian supply disruption could override the gradual easing path.

Statutory & Trade Defense

Policy Watch

DGTR oral hearing for cold-rolled stainless case

Scheduled for Friday, 11 September 2026 at 3:30 PM IST

The individual case timeline lists Oral Hearing as its latest entry and shows no preliminary or final determination.

Source: DGTR case page, 8 Sep 2026 - https://www.dgtr.gov.in/en/anti-dumping-cases/anti-dumping-investigation-concerning-imports-cold-rolled-flat-products

Source Attribution: SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/es/newscontent/104101310-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-stainless-steel-futures-drive-spot-price-recovery-september-peak-season-demand-weak-insufficient-upward-momentum | SMM, 4 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104098710-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-ss-futures-rebound-limited-stainless-steel-spot-decline-eases-but-transactions-remain-mediocre | SMM, 31 Aug 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104088818-smm-stainless-steel-daily-review-futures-extended-the-weak-trend-and-broke-below-support-spot-stainless-steel-prices-held-steady-with-sluggish-trading | SMM, 7 Sep session - https://www-old.metal.com/Nickel/LME_NI_3M | SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104101557-smm-analysis-golden-september-nickel-pig-iron-prices-slide-as-chinas-mills-delay-restocking | BigMint, 2-4 Sep 2026 - https://www.bigmint.co/insights/scrap-recycling/stainless-steel | SMM, 7 Sep 2026 - https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104099437-flash-chiles-weather-bites-back-caserones-copper-guidance-slashed-molybdenum-caught-in-the-crossfire | DGTR case page, 8 Sep 2026 - https://www.dgtr.gov.in/en/anti-dumping-cases/anti-dumping-investigation-concerning-imports-cold-rolled-flat-products

Published by Metal Dock B2B Trade Intelligence Desk  ·  Wazirpur Industrial Area, Delhi

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